Germany’s opposition conservative bloc, the CDU/CSU, secured victory in Sunday’s national election, positioning its leader Friedrich Merz to become the next chancellor. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its strongest result to date, finishing in second place, according to exit polls.
The election, marked by violent incidents and interventions from former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, saw the conservative alliance claim 28.5% of the vote, while the AfD garnered 20%, according to an exit poll from ZDF public broadcaster. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, securing just 16.5%—their worst result since World War Two.
The Greens received 12%, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) hovered around the 5% threshold required to enter parliament. A late surge by the far-left Die Linke gave it 9%, while the newly formed leftist party BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, narrowly crossed the threshold with 5%.
The results signal prolonged coalition negotiations, likely leading to a three-party government similar to the one that collapsed in November under Scholz’s leadership. If coalition talks drag on, Scholz could remain in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgent economic reforms needed to revive Germany’s struggling economy after two years of contraction.
Merz, 69, who lacks prior government experience, has promised stronger leadership and closer collaboration with key allies. A staunch economic liberal, he has shifted the CDU/CSU further to the right, in contrast to former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centrist approach during her 16-year tenure.
Public discontent over economic stagnation and migration policy has fueled AfD’s rise, reflecting a stark shift from Germany’s once welcoming stance during the 2015 migrant crisis. The growing influence of both the far right and far left is complicating coalition-building and governance.
European Union allies are watching the outcome closely, hoping for a stable government capable of advancing domestic and EU-wide policies. Some also anticipate that Merz may reform Germany’s “debt brake,” a constitutional limit on government borrowing that critics argue has restricted essential investment.