Somalia’s deepening political crisis took a dramatic turn as the federal government and the semi-autonomous Jubbaland region issued mutual arrest warrants for their respective leaders. This unprecedented development underscores a growing rift that threatens to destabilize not only Somalia but also the wider Horn of Africa region.
The conflict centers around Jubbaland’s re-election of Ahmed Madobe as its regional president, a move that Mogadishu has dismissed as illegitimate. The federal government accuses Jubbaland of undermining national unity, while Jubbaland contends that Mogadishu is engaging in authoritarian overreach, infringing on regional autonomy.
In a bold response, Jubbaland’s Attorney General issued an arrest warrant for Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud through the First Instance Court in Kismayo. The charges include treason, inciting civil unrest, and organizing an armed rebellion to disrupt Somalia’s constitutional order. However, the warrant notably lacks supporting evidence.
This action followed a similar warrant issued by a Mogadishu court against Jubbaland’s leader, Ahmed Madobe. The federal government’s charges against Madobe include treason and disclosing classified information to foreign entities. The simultaneous warrants highlight the deep mistrust and power struggle between the two sides.
The enforceability of these arrest warrants remains unclear, as both Mohamud and Madobe control loyal military forces, raising fears of potential armed conflict. Somalia’s Information Minister, Daud Aweis, emphasized that the judiciary would handle the matter, reinforcing the government’s stance that it is a legal, not political, issue. Jubbaland’s security minister, Yusuf Dhumal, declined to comment on the situation.
Tensions escalated earlier this week when Mogadishu deployed additional troops to Jubbaland, a move seen as an effort to assert control over the region. The deployment is reminiscent of a similar standoff in 2021, when Jubbaland and other regional governments opposed attempts by the then-president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, to extend his term in office.
The current crisis risks reigniting old divisions and complicating Somalia’s efforts to rebuild its fragile political framework. Analysts warn that a prolonged standoff could destabilize the region, given Jubbaland’s strategic location bordering Kenya and Ethiopia.
As the power struggle intensifies, the possibility of a peaceful resolution remains uncertain, with both sides unwilling to back down. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Somalia can navigate this crisis without descending into further political chaos.